Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary events in a low probability environment

Operational earthquake forecasting for risk management and communication during seismic sequences depends on our ability to select an optimal forecasting model. To do this, we need to compare the performance of competing models in prospective experiments, and to rank their performance according to the outcome using a fair, reproducible and reliable method, usually in a low-probability environment. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability conducts prospective earthquake forecasting experiments around the globe. In this framework, it is crucial that the metrics used to rank the competing forecasts are ‘proper’, meaning that, on average, they prefer the data generating model. We prove that the Parimutuel Gambling score, proposed, and in some cases applied, as a metric for comparing probabilistic seismicity forecasts, is in general ‘improper’. In the special case where it is proper, we show it can still be used improperly. We demonstrate the conclusions both analytically and graphically providing a set of simulation based techniques that can be used to assess if a score is proper or not. They only require a data generating model and, at least two forecasts to be compared. We compare the Parimutuel Gambling score’s performance with two commonly used proper scores (the Brier and logarithmic scores) using confidence intervals to account for the uncertainty around the observed score difference. We suggest that using confidence intervals enables a rigorous approach to distinguish between the predictive skills of candidate forecasts, in addition to their rankings. Our analysis shows that the Parimutuel Gambling score is biased, and the direction of the bias depends on the forecasts taking part in the experiment. Our findings suggest the Parimutuel Gambling score should not be used to distinguishing between multiple competing forecasts, and for care to be taken in the case where only two are being compared

Production of a chromium Bose-Einstein condensate

The recent achievement of Bose-Einstein condensation of chromium atoms [1] has opened longed-for experimental access to a degenerate quantum gas with long-range and anisotropic interaction. Due to the large magnetic moment of chromium atoms of 6 {$\mu$}B, in contrast to other Bose- Einstein condensates (BECs), magnetic dipole-dipole interaction plays an important role in a chromium BEC. Many new physical properties of degenerate gases arising from these magnetic forces have been predicted in the past and can now be studied experimentally. Besides these phenomena, the large dipole moment leads to a breakdown of standard methods for the creation of a chromium BEC. Cooling and trapping methods had to be adapted to the special electronic structure of chromium to reach the regime of quantum degeneracy. Some of them apply generally to gases with large dipolar forces. We present here a detailed discussion of the experimental techniques which are used to create a chromium BEC and alow us to produce pure condensates with up to {$10^5$} atoms in an optical dipole trap. We also describe the methods used to determine the trapping parameters.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figure

Efficacy of imidacloprid + moxidectin and selamectin topical solutions against the KS1 Ctenocephalides felis flea strain infesting cats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Two studies were conducted to evaluate and compare the efficacy of imidacloprid + moxidectin and selamectin topical solutions against the KS1 flea strain infesting cats. In both studies the treatment groups were comprised of non-treated controls, 6% w/v selamectin (Revolution^®; Pfizer Animal Health) topical solution and 10% w/v imidacloprid + 1% w/v moxidectin (Advantage <it>Multi</it>^®for Cats, Bayer Animal Health) topical solution. All cats were infested with 100 fleas on Days -2, 7, 14, 21, and 28. The difference in the studies was that in study #1 efficacy evaluations were conducted at 24 and 48 hours post-treatment or post-infestation, and in study #2 evaluations were conducted at 12 and 24 hours.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In study #1 imidacloprid + moxidectin and the selamectin formulation provided 99.8% and 99.0% efficacy at 24 hours post-treatment. On day 28, the 24 hour efficacy of the selamectin formulation dropped to 87.1%, whereas the imidacloprid + moxidectin formulation provided 98.9% efficacy. At the 48 hour assessments following the 28 day infestations, efficacy of the imidacloprid + moxidectin and selamectin formulations was 96.8% and 98.3% respectively. In study # 2 the efficacy of the imidacloprid + moxidectin and selamectin formulations 12 hours after treatment was 100% and 69.4%, respectively. On day 28, efficacy of the imidacloprid + moxidectin and selamectin formulations 12 hours after infestation was 90.2% and 57.3%, respectively. In study #2 both formulations provided high levels of efficacy at the 24 hour post-infestation assessments, with selamectin and imidacloprid + moxidectin providing 95.3% and 97.5% efficacy, following infestations on day 28.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>At the 24 and 48 hour residual efficacy assessments, the imidacloprid + moxidectin and selamectin formulations were similarly highly efficacious. However, the imidacloprid + moxidectin formulation provided a significantly higher rate of flea kill against the KS1 flea strain infesting cats at every 12 hour post-infestation residual efficacy assessment. Both formulations should provide excellent flea control for an entire month on cats.</p

How many sentinel nodes should be harvested in oral squamous cell carcinoma?

The number of harvested lymph nodes when performing sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy remains controversial. The aim of this study was to examine the maximum number of nodes to be harvested for histopathological analysis. We also wanted to determine if the level of radioactivity within a SLN or its size were indicators for the likelihood of nodal metastases. The SLNs from 34 neck dissection specimens from patients with T1/T2 N0 oral and oropharyngeal carcinomas were included. Altogether 76 SLNs were measured for radioactivity and lymph node dimensions and volume. Tumour was identified in 16 of 76 nodes (positive nodes), and the remaining 60 nodes were free from tumour (negative nodes). In 9 of 16 cases, metastases were in the hottest node. Two patients had more than one positive SLN: the first and fourth hottest in one and the second and fourth hottest nodes in another contained tumour. However, all patients would have been staged accurately if only the hottest three sentinel nodes had been retrieved. Lymph nodes that contained tumour had a greater maximum diameter than non-metastatic SLNs. To stage the neck accurately, only the three hottest lymph nodes required sampling

Possible thermochemical disequilibrium in the atmosphere of the exoplanet GJ 436b

The nearby extrasolar planet GJ 436b--which has been labelled as a 'hot Neptune'--reveals itself by the dimming of light as it crosses in front of and behind its parent star as seen from Earth. Respectively known as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, the former constrains the planet's radius and mass, and the latter constrains the planet's temperature and, with measurements at multiple wavelengths, its atmospheric composition. Previous work using transmission spectroscopy failed to detect the 1.4-\mu m water vapour band, leaving the planet's atmospheric composition poorly constrained. Here we report the detection of planetary thermal emission from the dayside of GJ 436b at multiple infrared wavelengths during the secondary eclipse. The best-fit compositional models contain a high CO abundance and a substantial methane (CH4) deficiency relative to thermochemical equilibrium models for the predicted hydrogen-dominated atmosphere. Moreover, we report the presence of some H2O and traces of CO2. Because CH4 is expected to be the dominant carbon-bearing species, disequilibrium processes such as vertical mixing and polymerization of methane into substances such as ethylene may be required to explain the hot Neptune's small CH4-to-CO ratio, which is at least 10^5 times smaller than predicted

Predatory capacity of a shorefly, Ochthera chalybescens, on malaria vectors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since <it>Ochthera chalybescens </it>had been reported to prey on African malaria vectors, the predatory capacity of adults of this species on <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>sensu stricto was explored.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Predatory capacity of this fly on <it>A. gambiae </it>s.s. was tested at all developmental stages, including the adult stage in the laboratory setting. Effects of water depth on its predatory capacity were also examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study revealed that <it>O. chalybescens </it>preyed on mosquitoes at all life stages except eggs. It was able to prey on an average of 9.8 to 18.8 mosquito larvae in 24 hrs. Mosquito larva size and water depth did not affect predatory capacity. However, the predacious fly preyed on significantly more 2^nd-instar larvae than on pupae when larvae and pupae were both available.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>Ochthera chalybescens </it>is, by all indications, an important predator of African malaria vectors.</p

The COPE LBP trial: Cognitive Patient Education for Low Back Pain - a cluster randomized controlled trial in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-specific low back pain (LBP) is usually self-limiting within 4-6 weeks. Longstanding pain and disability are not predictable from clinical signs or pathoanatomical findings. Pain cognition and physical performance have been shown to improve patients with chronic LBP following neurophysiological education. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate whether a specific cognitive based education programme for patients with LBP in primary care is more effective than normal care in terms of increased function. The secondary aims of the study are to evaluate whether this intervention also results in earlier return to work, decreased pain, increased patient satisfaction, increased quality-of-life, and cost utility.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Cluster randomised controlled trial with 20 general practitioners and 20 physiotherapists in primary care as the unit of randomisation. Each practitioner will recruit up to 10 patients, aged 20 to 55 years, with non-specific sub-acute/chronic LBP of more than four weeks but less than 1 year's duration. Practitioners in the intervention arm will provide cognitive patient education intervention in up to four weekly sessions, each lasting 30 minutes. Practitioners in the control arm will provide normal treatment, but have to make four appointments for the patients. Patients, outcome assessors, and study statistician will be blinded to group allocation.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We present the rationale and design of an ongoing RCT study that potentially offers an easily implemented treatment strategy for LBP patients in primary care. The results will be available in 2012.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN04323845</p

Sentinel node detection in N0 cancer of the pharynx and larynx

Neck lymph node status is the most important factor for prognosis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Sentinel node detection reliably predicts the lymph node status in melanoma and breast cancer patients. This study evaluates the predictive value of sentinel node detection in 50 patients suffering from pharyngeal and laryngeal carcinomas with a N0 neck as assessed by ultrasound imaging. Following 99m-Technetium nanocolloid injection in the perimeter of the tumour intraoperative sentinel node detection was performed during lymph node dissection. Postoperatively the histological results of the sentinel nodes were compared with the excised neck dissection specimen. Identification of sentinel nodes was successful in all 50 patients with a sensitivity of 89%. In eight cases the sentinel node showed nodal disease (pN1). In 41 patients the sentinel node was tumour negative reflecting the correct neck lymph node status (pN0). We observed one false-negative result. In this case the sentinel node was free of tumour, whereas a neighbouring lymph node contained a lymph node metastasis (pN1). Although we have shown, that skipping of nodal basins can occur, this technique still reliably identifies the sentinel nodes of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the pharynx and larynx. Future studies must show, if sentinel node detection is suitable to limit the extent of lymph node dissection in clinically N0 necks of patients suffering from pharyngeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Infrared composition of the Large Magellanic Cloud

The evolution of galaxies and the history of star formation in the Universe are among the most important topics in today's astrophysics. Especially, the role of small, irregular galaxies in the star-formation history of the Universe is not yet clear. Using the data from the AKARI IRC survey of the Large Magellanic Cloud at 3.2, 7, 11, 15, and 24 {\mu}m wavelengths, i.e., at the mid- and near-infrared, we have constructed a multiwavelength catalog containing data from a cross-correlation with a number of other databases at different wavelengths. We present the separation of different classes of stars in the LMC in color-color, and color-magnitude, diagrams, and analyze their contribution to the total LMC flux, related to point sources at different infrared wavelengths

Prediction of 7-year psychopathology from mother-infant joint attention behaviours: a nested case–control study

&lt;br&gt;Background: To investigate whether later diagnosis of psychiatric disorder can be predicted from analysis of mother-infant joint attention (JA) behaviours in social-communicative interaction at 12 months.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Method: Using data from a large contemporary birth cohort, we examined 159 videos of a mother-infant interaction for joint attention behaviour when children were aged one year, sampled from within the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort. Fifty-three of the videos involved infants who were later considered to have a psychiatric disorder at seven years and 106 were same aged controls. Psychopathologies included in the case group were disruptive behaviour disorders, oppositional-conduct disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, pervasive development disorder, anxiety and depressive disorders. Psychiatric diagnoses were obtained using the Development and Wellbeing Assessment when the children were seven years old.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Results: None of the three JA behaviours (shared look rate, shared attention rate and shared attention intensity) showed a significant association with the primary outcome of case–control status. Only shared look rate predicted any of the exploratory sub-diagnosis outcomes and was found to be positively associated with later oppositional-conduct disorders (OR [95% CI]: 1.5 [1.0, 2.3]; p = 0.041).&lt;/br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Conclusions: JA behaviours did not, in general, predict later psychopathology. However, shared look was positively associated with later oppositional-conduct disorders. This suggests that some features of JA may be early markers of later psychopathology. Further investigation will be required to determine whether any JA behaviours can be used to screen for families in need of intervention.&lt;/br&gt